Cenovus Energy (CVE.TO)

He trimmed a bit. Firing on all cylinders. Refinery margins have been astronomical compared to recent history. Still quite a bit of upside. Still undervalued, even if oil stays here or goes a bit lower.

Set-it-and-forget-it way to get exposure to bullish oil thesis. New floor for oil is $80, and higher in years to come. Downstream exposure (refineries), with margins at record highs. Top decile oilsands assets. Another record quarter. Really likes management. Yield is 2.09%.

Higher energy prices should trickle down to its bottom line. Cashflow should increase, should start to pay down debt. MEG is a great asset. Lots of respect for it.

Discount to peers, mostly because of the MEG acquisition. Now has high debt load, and that will take a bit of time to work through. Long term, MEG will add synergies and volumes. OK buying here, but know that focus probably on reducing debt rather than on buybacks/dividends.

Extremely well run. He wouldn't hesitate to have a position in it.

He owns SU instead.

The war will eventually end and oil will resume flowing through the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, the WTI-Brent oil spread will widen. Cenovus has very long-life assets in the Tar Sands, but also benefit huge from the refinery crack spreads.

Higher risk profile. Has come a long way in how assets are managed. An opportunity today if you believe energy prices will remain strong for a prolonged time. Be a bit careful. Dollar-cost average carefully.

CNQ tends to be his go-to producer in the Canadian energy patch.

At maximum weight in his fund. Most obvious Canadian large-cap name to own right now. Security of supply is the most paramount issue right now. Thinks it's a $50 stock at $80 oil; his own in-house estimates model $79.

Benefits from best rock in Canada and massive expansions in US refining.

Over the long run, the MEG acquisition will work out OK if they can execute and merge the companies well. There's a bit of risk to that. Better company now than years ago.

He prefers CNQ as a better company and better run.

A name to consider in energy.

A great chart. From 2022-2024, this was a swing trade, within a consistent range. Then, it fell in early 2025, but then moved up, past resistance at $28 and kept going up. This can go higher as long as it wants.

EPS of 50c surpassed the 42c estimate, and revenue of $10.88B beat forecasts by 2%. Results demonstrated Cenovus' substantial expansion through its MEG Energy acquisition, with record upstream production of 917,900 barrels per day in Q4 providing crucial volume protection against softer crude prices. Despite a recent geopolitical boost to oil prices, WTI has averaged $61.40 in Q1, down roughly 14% from Q1 2025. With stable to growing production, operating cash flow will likely face pressure in Q1 and throughout the year without a sustained price rebound. Shareholder returns should remain a focus, but buybacks are expected to moderate from last year's approximately C$2 billion as Cenovus manages MEG-related debt and works toward its C$4 billion net debt target. They remain fully comfortable with the position, though commodity price direction will be critical. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

Makes sense to him. Deep Basin assets were picked up years ago, so this would be a chance to monetize those, pay down debt, and accelerate ROC to shareholders. Bay Street would probably view this very favourably. Shareholders want capital returned via share buybacks, and it's at a bit of a competitive disadvantage to companies like SU that return more capital to shareholders.

Believes reported headline number of $3B is light. Could be closer to $4B in asset sales.